Tuesday, May 17, 2011

alt.autos - 2 new messages in 1 topic - digest

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Today's topics:

* Gas futures fall 8% on report of less driving - 2 messages, 2 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.autos/t/936e4d9375d40d15?hl=en

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TOPIC: Gas futures fall 8% on report of less driving
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.autos/t/936e4d9375d40d15?hl=en
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== 1 of 2 ==
Date: Sun, May 15 2011 4:57 pm
From: "Charles Grozny"

"Guv Bob" <guvbob2003@YAHOOOOOOOOEY.com> wrote in message
news:_vqdnSM9D70XhE3QnZ2dnUVZ_u2dnZ2d@earthlink.com...
"Charles Grozny" <n5hsr@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:tvudnTZvGIgNG1HQnZ2dnUVZ_rGdnZ2d@giganews.com...
>
> "Fatter Than Ever Moe" <HardTimes@TheFarm> wrote in message
> news:4dcc3a49$0$15859$bbae4d71@news.suddenlink.net...
> > C. E. White wrote:
> >> http://www.freep.com/article/20110512/BUSINESS07/105120480/Gas-futures-fall-8-report-less-driving
> >>
> >> NEW YORK -- Gasoline futures tumbled almost 8% Wednesday after a
> >> government report showed the strongest evidence yet that higher pump
> >> prices are forcing Americans to drive less.
> >> Oil also dropped back below the $100 mark.
> >>
> >> The Energy Information Administration said that U.S. gasoline demand
> >> dropped 2.4% last week, the largest drop in seven consecutive weeks of
> >> declines. Analysts said motorists are buying less gas with pump prices
> >> close to a national average of $4 per gallon.
> >>
> >> "That $4 number is not just having a psychological impact, but a direct
> >> impact on drivers," energy consultant Jim Ritterbusch said. "Normally,
> >> with the economy recovering, you'd expect gasoline demand to go up, but
> >> that's not happening."
> >>
> >> With Memorial Day less than three weeks away, analysts now expect that,
> >> at most, motorists will use about as much gasoline this summer driving
> >> season as they did in 2010.
> >>
> >> "My opinion is that they started cutting back when prices hit $3.50"
> >> per
> >> gallon, oil analyst Andrew Lipow said. "We haven't seen the full effect
> >> of that just yet."
> >>
> >> The national average for a gallon of regular reached $3.50 on March 6.
> >> It's now at $3.96 after reaching $3.98 per gallon last week. Gas rose
> >> mostly because of higher oil prices, but also because of refinery
> >> outages.
> >>
> >> The EIA data showed that gasoline supplies increased by 1.3 million
> >> barrels last week even with a decline in refining activity around the
> >> country. Gasoline for June delivery plunged, losing 25.69 cents to
> >> settle
> >> at $3.1228 per gallon on the Nymex.
> >>
> >> The CME Group, which owns the Nymex, suspended trading in energy
> >> contracts for five minutes after the gasoline contract dropped by more
> >> than 25 cents.
> >>
> >> Gas supplies typically decline in the spring as refineries purge their
> >> stocks of winter fuels. This year, supplies fell more than expected as
> >> fires, power outages and other problems temporarily knocked refineries
> >> out of commission.
> >>
> >> Gasoline futures had risen Tuesday on concerns that flooding could
> >> impact
> >> some refineries along the lower Mississippi River, analysts said.
> >
> > Supply/demand somethings don't change.
>
> But Gas prices haven't dropped a penny here.
>
> Charles Grozny

Dropped about 10 cents in S Calif in the past 2 weeks.

It looks like they may be going up again tomorrow another 7 cents here in
Illinois.

BOHICA.


== 2 of 2 ==
Date: Mon, May 16 2011 4:57 am
From: "C. E. White"

"Ed Pawlowski" <esp@snetnospam.net> wrote in message
news:sLqdnXEid8GdBFHQnZ2dnUVZ_gOdnZ2d@giganews.com...
>
> "Charles Grozny" <n5hsr@comcast.net> wrote
>>>>
>>>> NEW YORK -- Gasoline futures tumbled almost 8% Wednesday after a
>>>> government report showed the strongest evidence yet that higher pump
>>>> prices are forcing Americans to drive less.
>>>> Oil also dropped back below the $100 mark.
>
>>>>
>>>> Gasoline futures had risen Tuesday on concerns that flooding could
>>>> impact some refineries along the lower Mississippi River, analysts
>>>> said.
>>>
>>> Supply/demand somethings don't change.
>>
>> But Gas prices haven't dropped a penny here.
>>
>> Charles Grozny
>>
>
> Here in CT, they dropped 3¢ last Friday, but jumped 6¢ on Tuesday to a new
> high this year. Present price $4.269

Yesterday at Costco regular was $3.759. In general prices have been edging
back down. The local paper had an article on gas prices and how speculators
had driven up the prices.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/05/15/1198728/analysis-speculators-fuel-climbing.html
(link will probably only work for a few days...

.......

"No oil shortage

"Although those numbers are stark, the numbers on supply and demand make it
clear that the high prices aren't coming from there. There is no shortage of
oil stocks by historical standards. There's an estimated 3 million to 4
million barrels per day of excess oil production capacity in the world
today. That's much more than when supplies were tight in 2008.

"U.S. crude oil stocks on April 29, the date oil peaked this year above $113
a barrel, stood at 1.768billion barrels, according to the Energy Information
Administration. That's about 700,000 barrels more than in July 2008, when
oil prices hit all-time highs.

"And that's plenty to meet U.S. needs, because consumption isn't growing.

"The United States consumed 20.68 million barrels per day in 2007. Then came
the financial crisis, and consumption dipped to 19.5million bpd in 2008.
Last year, the number was 19.5million bpd. This year's projection is 19.28
million bpd.

"So if supplies are plentiful and consumer demand isn't rising, why are
prices?

"Could it be that refineries aren't able to produce enough gasoline? No.
Refiners are running their plants at below cruising speed, and they've got
lots of room to produce more if consumers need it.

"The latest data from the EIA on the rate at which refineries are utilized
showed a rate of 79.8 percent in February. That's 20 percentage points below
full-blown production. The last time the rate was lower: 1986. If demand for
gasoline was soaring, these plants would be cranking at a higher rate.

"Though evidence of speculation is increasingly obvious, the facts haven't
yet been acknowledged enough to force corrective regulatory action.
......

Read more:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/05/15/1198728/analysis-speculators-fuel-climbing.html

My advice remains the same - buy less gas. This will stick it to the
speculators better than anything Congress can or will do.

Ed


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